changeover prefixes

[karlpc]

do all changeover prefixes command a premium?

[Nota_phil]

I think the answer "depends" on which side of the change-over you have (short or common), what is known about that specific prefix & which denomination/series.

Generally speaking, I'll start with "Series" since that's obviously the most simple variable: the further back the series, the higher the premium (generally). Higher denominations usually don't get the same attention as lower (or mid) denominations (just like special serial numbers).

Generally speaking, each signature change-over will have a short/tough or common prefix. Change overs below 1M will be considered short (or tough) & will be more sought after than prefixes which transition over 2M (more common). So the $10 Wilkins Poloz FFE (below 0.85M) will be more sought after & enjoy a higher premium than the Wilkins-Poloz FTN (above 7.18M). A Wilkins-Poloz FTN $10 will be much more common than a $10 FFE with the same signature. There are tougher signature change-overs in the Journey series but I'm using the more recent series for simplicity sake.

What is known about the prefix, such as HCM $5 (if its a 50/50 change-over where the transition is in the 5M range) doesn't stir up a lot of attention. Then there's the short change-overs that are a mystery (like the 2003 BER $10 or the Macklem Carney FTH $10) which have had much fewer numbers reported (than their 2004 BER or Macklem Poloz FTH $10). Bank of Canada's numbers for the 2003 BER & the Macklem Carney FTH are high but these prefixes were reported on the Canadian Paper Money Forum's Serial # database & few were reported. It is believed that most of the runs for these two prefixes were never released (issued) & thus scarce.

[karlpc]

thank you Nota_phil !
we run up against the qty printed numbers
i believe they are not always accurate
is that what you believe ?
or is it that not all notes printed are released?
also i would like your opinion as to why professional note grading companies consistently over grade the notes
do you believe they do and why?
it brings the hobby into disrepute

[Nota_phil]

thank you Nota_phil !
we run up against the qty printed numbers
A) i believe they are not always accurate
is that what you believe ?
or is it that not all notes printed are released?
B) also i would like your opinion as to why professional note grading companies consistently over grade the notes
do you believe they do and why?
it brings the hobby into disrepute

A) the Bank of Canada get their statistics from the printers. Charlton press gets their data from the Bank of Canada. The statistics of what the Bank of Canada issues may not always jive with the reality. This has been the case since 1935. I gave 2 prefixes as examples but there's many more. Even the Journey $20 ERG prefix had high & low numbers reported but no mid-range serial numbers

B) Graders are people & as such will be subjective in their grading. Once you've seen enough notes you will see some that are over graded and some that are under graded. I think it works both ways but the over graded notes get the most press (or the most posts/complaints) b/c money is involved & somebody bought the holder (& failed to scrutinize the note well enough). It happens. I don't think it brings the hobby in disrepute. Rip off gimmicks (like gold stamped Maple Leaf stamped notes, hyping up a common note, notes sold in folders, etc) & unscrupulous sellers on eBay can certainly drag the hobby through the mud. Many sellers over grade a note too. That's a disservice to the hobby IMO

[karlpc]

Thank you for your insights and opinions!

[Nota_phil]

Thank you for your insights and opinions!

You are most welcome.

I just want to add some context to some of the statements I made above (in case you haven't followed what happened with the Journey 2001 series). A short time after the $10 were released, crooks were photocopying them so they became a problem for law enforcement. Plans to upgrade were in the works about 2 years after they started (around 2002). At least there was a buzz in the collector community that something was about to give & then the $5.00 appeared.

Note, this was also the first time that the BoC printers imprinted dates on their notes. And with the internet and the Canadian Paper Money Forum, it was easy to follow the release of new prefixes closely. I'll give you the Reader's Digest version:
TENS:
The 2000 FDY was a short prefix & many collectors wanted one of these.
In 2002, we knew the Sr. Deputy governor changed & by 2003 saw very few 2003 BEK with the new Jenkins Dodge signature, so everyone was on the look out for these. 2003 BEM & BEN prefixes seemed to be full but the BEL & BEP prefixes were rarely found.
In 2004, we saw the 2004 Jenkins Dodge BER but very rarely saw any 2003 BER. By late 2004, a few lucky collectors found BEL & some 2003 BER and UNC BEP's were found but not many. Every collector I knew was in the hunt for the above prefixes while the 2004 BER appeared (but it was a low # 1.4M change-over) & the BES prefix came out as a full run. The BET was the last (& short 0.92M) prefix and sought after too.
FIVES:
Nothing really exciting occurred with the FIVES

Most of us obsessed over finding the "Lost $10 prefixes" which were the BEL & BEP though it soon became apparent that the BEL was much scarcer than the BEP. Notable tough notes were also the 2003 BER with 7.2M (but much scarcer than the 2004 (1.4M) BER). The 2003 BEK was mostly insert replacements so regular BEK notes (that fell outside the replacement ranges) were tougher.

I elaborated with these Journey change-overs b/c the numbers issued don't always tell the full story of what's scarce/tough & what is not.